Nell’ambito degli Environmental Meteorology and Climate Physics Seminar, nella giornata di lunedì 16 aprile, alle ore 14:30, si terrà un seminario dal titolo: “Indian Ocean teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe: a challenging problem for long-range predictions”, a cura di Franco Molteni (ECMWF/ItaliaMeteo).
Il seminario si terrà presso la Lecture Room 1P del DICAM – Università di Trento, sita in Via Mesiano 77, Trento e potrà essere seguito online tramite il seguente link: https://unitn.zoom.us/j/81311875342 (Meeting ID: 813 1187 5342, Passcode: 900484)
Abstract
In this presentation, we first summarise the state of the art on
diagnostics and model simulation of teleconnections originated from the
Indian Ocean, showing that similar problems exist when we look at the
problem on a range of time scales, from the sub-seasonal to the
interdecadal. While the relevance of Indian Ocean teleconnections to the
northern extra-tropics has become increasingly evident in the last 10-15
years, from both diagnostic studies and specific numerical
experimentation, the ability of global models to simulate such
teleconnections when they interact with the full range of climate
variability has hardly improved in recent years. We then present a range
of teleconnection statistics on the interannual time scale, computed
from observational data (ERA5 and GPCPv3.2 rainfall) and from five
European seasonal forecast systems contributing to the multi-model
ensemble of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). We show that
current seasonal forecast models can reproduce reasonably well the
connections between Indo-Pacific SST and rainfall during the boreal
winter, but (consistently with earlier results) they can only simulate
the connections of Indian Ocean SST and rainfall with the North
Atlantic/European circulation with about (at best) half the amplitude of
the signal from observational data. We also discuss the statistical
significance of the differences between observed and model
teleconnections, showing that the results are sensitive to the choice of
datasets used in the observational diagnostics.
Bio
Franco Molteni is an experienced scientist in the area of climate
dynamics and predictability. He held Section Head positions at the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading (U.K.) and
the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste
(Italy). He is author/co-author of over 100 scientific publications,
covering weather and climate predictability, atmospheric dynamics,
teleconnections and flow regimes. His main achievements include the
implementation of ensemble prediction systems for seasonal and
sub-seasonal forecasts, and the development of intermediate-complexity
models for the study of atmospheric and climate dynamics. He is
currently a consultant for the ItaliaMeteo Agency and a visiting
scientist at ECMWF and ICTP.
