seminari corsi meteorologia
Environmental Meteorology Seminar

Per la serie “Environmental Meteorology Seminar” segnaliamo il seminario di Franco Molteni dal titolo “Simulations of climate variability with a model of intermediate complexity” organizzato dall’Università di Trento giovedì 31 marzo 2022 alle 14:00.

Il seminario, principalmente dedicato agli studenti della Laurea Magistrale in Environmental Meteorology si terrà solo in modalità online. Gli interessati potranno partecipare via Zoom al link

https://unitn.zoom.us/j/85470205697
Meeting ID: 854 7020 5697
Passcode: 966830

Simulations of climate variability with a model of intermediate complexity

Abstract: Progress in the development of global climate models (GCMs) has allowed the simulation of many aspects of atmospheric and climate variability with an increasing level of fidelity. However, state-of-the-art GCMs are highly complex numerical codes which require substantial computational resources, as well as a deep understanding of the code organization by scientists who intend to modify their formulation in order to perform sensitivity studies. In academic environments, models with a simplified formulation and much lower computational demands allow researchers to perform numerical experiments which can be easily planned and executed. This talk presents the formulation of the intermediate-complexity global model developed at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Trieste, and shows a selection of results from studies on seasonal to decadal variability performed with this model. It is shown that, despite the reduced complexity, the ICTP model can successfully address a number of topics at the forefront of research on climate dynamics.

Bio: Franco Molteni obtained a degree in Physics from the University of Milan and a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Physics from the Imperial College of the University of London. He has been a co-leader of the Earth System Physics section at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Trieste, and Head of the Seasonal Forecast and Ensemble Prediction sections at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in Reading, U.K. His main areas of expertise are climate variability on sub-seasonal to decadal scales, ensemble predictions, and regime behaviour in non-linear dynamical models of the atmosphere. He is currently a scientific consultant at ECMWF and ICTP, and visiting professor in Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics at the University of Oxford.

seminari corsi meteorologia
Weather and Climate Seminar: Francesca Di Giuseppe

Martedì 29 marzo alle ore 15.30 si terrà via Zoom il terzo seminario della serie “Weather and Climate: From Fundamentals to Applications”. Maggiori informazioni sull’iniziativa, il modulo di pre-registrazione Zoom, ed il programma completo a questo link.

Il seminario di giovedì prossimo, dal titolo How Good are We at Predicting Fires?, sarà ospitato dall’Università dell’Aquila e tenuto da Francesca di Giuseppe (ECMWF).

Abstract: The prediction of fire danger conditions allows fire management agencies to implement fire prevention, detection and pre-suppression action plans before fire damages occur. However, in many countries fire danger rating relies on observed weather data, which only allows for daily environmental monitoring of fire conditions. Even when this estimation is enhanced with the combined use of satellite data, such as hot spots for early fire detection and land cover and fuel conditions, it normally only provides 4 to 6 h warnings. By using forecast conditions from advanced numerical weather models, early warning could be extended by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries. 
Using 1 year of pre-operational service in 2017 and the Fire Weather Index (FWI), in this talk we assess the capability of the system to predict fire danger globally and analyse in detail three major events in Chile, Portugal and California. The analysis shows that the skill provided by an ensemble forecast system extends to more than 10 days when compared to the use of mean climate, making a case for extending the forecast range to the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale. However, accurate FWI prediction does not translate into accuracy in the forecast of fire activity globally. Indeed, when all fires detected in 2017 are considered, including agricultural- and human-induced burning, high FWI values only occur in 50 % of the cases and are limited to the Boreal regions. Nevertheless, for very large events which were driven by weather conditions, FWI forecasts provide advance warning that could be instrumental in setting up management and containment strategies.
seminari corsi meteorologia
Masterclass RMetS e Università di Reading

MASTERCLASS Series: “Advances in weather and climate forecasting”

Continua la serie di lezioni online frutto della partnership tra la Royal Meteorological Society e l’Università di Reading; la prossima, che si terrà in modalità remota il 23 marzo dalle 15 alle 16:30 UTC, sarà tenuta dal prof. Peter Clarke:

How do we use the “Weather” in “Numerical Weather Prediction”?

Abstract: We have been forecasting using computer models for well over 50 years. However, we soon became used to the idea that so-called ‘NWP’ models predict the synoptic-scale meteorology, such as the position and strength of low- or high-pressure regions. They lacked the resolution or sufficiently sophisticated representation of physical processes to actually forecast the ‘weather’ such as rain, cloud, fog without additional help from some kind of post-processing or interpretation by meteorologists. 
Vast increases in computer power have led, in part at least, to increases in model resolution and sophistication, pioneered in regional models to the extent that they now do represent much of the ‘weather’ directly. Model horizontal grid lengths of 1-2 km are now common, and some centres are investigating resolutions 10 times higher, such that some of the motions we would label as ‘turbulence’ are explicitly simulated! 
This revolution in resolution has contributed to huge improvements in forecasting the ‘meteorology’, but, paradoxically, smaller scales are less predictable than larger scales, partly because of higher sensitivity to physical processes like cloud microphysics and turbulence. We are faced with a real dilemma over what we can believe in models, how we represent our uncertain knowledge through stochastic parametrizations and how we extract the best information from what we have. This talk and discussion will highlight these issues and discuss some of the work going on to help us make best use of these advances. 

La descrizione dettagliata di questa e delle altre lezioni della serie, le biografie degli oratori e le informazioni per partecipare si possono trovare a questo link.

seminari corsi meteorologia
Weather and Climate Seminar: Thomas Jung

Giovedì 22 marzo alle ore 15 si terrà via Zoom il secondo seminario della serie “Weather and Climate: From Fundamentals to Applications”. Maggiori informazioni sull’iniziativa, il modulo di pre-registrazione Zoom, ed il programma completo a questo link.

Il seminario di giovedì prossimo, dal titolo Extreme Events in a Warmer World – Making the Impacts of Climate
Change More Tangible
, sarà ospitato dall’ICTP e tenuto da Thomas Jung (Alfred Wegener Institute).

seminari corsi meteorologia
Environmental Meteorology Seminar

Per la serie “Environmental Meteorology Seminar” segnaliamo il seminario di Andrea Zonato dal titolo “Turbulence modeling in the urban boundary layer over complex terrain: theory and applications” organizzato dall’Università di Trento giovedì 17 marzo 2022 alle 14:30.

Il seminario, principalmente dedicato agli studenti della Laurea Magistrale in Environmental Meteorology si terrà nell’aula 1P al DICAM Via Mesiano, 77, Trento. Gli interessati potranno partecipare anche via Zoom al link

https://unitn.zoom.us/j/85470205697
Meeting ID: 854 7020 5697
Passcode: 966830

Turbulence modeling in the urban boundary layer over complex terrain: theory and applications

Abstract: This talk will present the basic theory and some applications of novel turbulence parameterizations for the planetary boundary layer, adopted to improve the simulation of processes over heterogeneous surfaces, such as urban areas and mountainous regions. First of all, the application of a novel parameterization for rooftop-based mitigation strategies (RMS) will be discussed and results from idealized simulations will be presented, with the aim to quantify the effect of RMS by means of thermal comfort for the citizens. Finally, the focus will be set on a new Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) closure, developed with the aim to improve the reproduction of atmospheric flows in presence of slopes and heterogeneous surfaces. Application to idealized and real cases will be shown, to demonstrate weaknesses of state-of-the-art closures and the improvements brought by the proposed PBL scheme.

Bio: Andrea Zonato is currently a Post-Doc researcher at the University of Trento (Italy), Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, Atmospheric Physics Group. He received his BSc in Physics at the University of Padova in 2013, his MSc in Physics of the Earth System at the University of Bologna in 2016 and his Ph.D. at the University of Trento in 2021. His expertise is in mesoscale numerical modeling of the urban atmosphere and planetary boundary layer (PBL) in complex terrain.

seminari corsi meteorologia
Serie di seminari “Weather and Climate: From Fundamentals to Applications”

Segnaliamo una serie di seminari intitolata “Weather and Climate: From Fundamentals to Applications”. L’evento è promosso dai gruppi Fisica del Sistema Terra dell’ICTP, Fisica Atmosferica dell’Università di Trento e Fisica Atmosferica dell’Università dell’Aquila.

Il primo seminario è previsto per martedì 15 marzo alle ore 15:30. Maggiori informazioni a questo link.

Nel sito troverete anche il link per iscrivervi all’evento.