seminari corsi meteorologia
Seminario di Meteorologia Ambientale – E. Dallan e M. Borga

Per la serie “Environmental Meteorology Seminar”, vi segnaliamo il seminario di Eleonora Dallan e Marco Borga dal titolo: “Assessment of future changes in sub-daily precipitation return levels over a complex- orography area from a convection-permitting climate model“, organizzato dall’Università di Padova – Dipartimento di Terra, Ambiente e Agricoltura. Il seminario si terrà Online sulla piattaforma Zoom (https://unitn.zoom.us/j/86949977106 (Meeting ID: 869 4997 7106, Passcode: 247282)) il prossimo Giovedì 15 Dicembre 2022 alle ore 14:00.

Il seminario è rivolto agli studenti che frequentano il programma di laurea specialistica in Meteorologia ambientale presso l’Università di Padova.

Vi riportiamo l’abstract del seminario e la biografia dei docenti.

Abstract

Sub-daily extreme precipitation can trigger hydro-geomorphic hazards such as flash floods and debris flows, responsible of fatalities and damages. Estimating their future changes is fundamental for risk management and adaptation strategies, especially in complex-orography regions.
Convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) resolve large convective systems and represent local processes more realistically than coarser resolution models. CPMs better represent sub-daily extreme precipitation and provide higher confidence in the estimate of their future changes. 
Because of the computation cost, the existing CPM simulations are available for relatively short time periods (10–20 years at most).This hampers the use of conventional extreme value methods, based on yearly maxima or a few values over a high threshold, for deriving precipitation frequency analyses.
In this work, we aim to evaluate the potential of a novel statistical method based on many “ordinary” events, the so- called Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (SMEV) approach. This method has shown to allow reliable estimates of rare return levels from short data records and offers the chance to be effectively applied to the analysis of CPM precipitation data for reliable frequency analysis on future extremes.
We compare results with a modified Generalized Extreme Value approach (GEV), recently applied for the study of extremes in CPM future time periods. We focus on a complex orography region in the Eastern Italian Alps, where significant changes in sub-daily annual maxima have been already observed. The study is based on COSMO-crCLIM model simulations at 2.2 km resolution under the RCP8.5 scenario. We focus on three 10-year time slices: historical 1996-2005 (the control period), near-future 2041-2050 and far future 2090-2099. We also perform a bias assessment by comparing the results from a dense network of long-record rain gauges with the results obtained at the station-collocated historical CPM. We estimate extreme precipitation for 5 durations ranging from 1 h to 24 h and assess the changes between the time periods. Specifically we analyze: annual maxima, return levels up to 50yr, and parameters of the statistical model. A bootstrap procedure is used for evaluating the uncertainty of the estimates and for testing the significance of the changes.
The changes in the annual maxima and in the rare return levels exhibit a general increase in the future, with larger increase in the far future at the shorter duration. The changes show an interesting spatial organization that can be associated with the orography of the region: the stronger (significant) increasing changes are located at the high elevations, while lowlands and coastal zones show not so clear patterns. Compared with the GEV, SMEV allows estimates of rare return levels with relatively low uncertainty and less noisy spatial patterns.
This work shows that SMEV can be successfully used to have reliable estimates of future extreme precipitation from short CPM. The findings on the future changes at the different time scales and their spatial organization improve our knowledge about the projected extreme precipitation and thus help to improve the strategies for risk management and adaptation.

Bio
Marco Borga is full professor at the Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry of the University of Padova. He teaches courses in Hydrology, Hydraulics, Forest Hydrology, Hydrology and Climate, Hydrological modelling. Since 1989 he carries out national and international research activities at the University of Padova in the field of hydrology and water resources. His main research interests include:
- Water resources management: climate impacts and feedbacks, risk management, water and society, water and energy;
- Hydrological predictions and modelling: runoff models, rainfall estimates from radar and satellite for runoff modelling, flood and flash flood forecasts;
- Forest and Catchment hydrology: flow and transport processes, soil
moisture, water transport in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system, snow and glaciers;
- Geomorphology: prediction of shallow landsliding and debris flows; integrated hydro-geomorphic modelling of hillslopes.

Eleonora Dallan is an environmental engineer with a past experience in an hydraulic engineering company. She got  a PhD Degree in the field of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, studying constructed wetlands and smart tracers techniques. She is presently a Research Fellow at the Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry TESAF, University of Padova (Italy). She works on hydrological modelling and data management, analysis of extreme rainfalls, tracer techniques, and wetlands modelling.
seminari corsi meteorologia
Seminario di Meteorologia Ambientale – Fatima Pillosu

Per la serie “Environmental Meteorology Seminar”, vi segnaliamo il seminario di Fatima Pillosu (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts and University of Reading, Reading, UK) dal titolo: “ecPoint, post-processing of global ensemble rainfall forecasts: current efforts and future challenges to improve the prediction of extreme localized rainfall events and flash floods at global scale”.

Il seminario si terrà Giovedì 20 Ottobre 2022 alle ore 14:30, online attraverso la piattaforma Zoom (https://unitn.zoom.us/j/85796377450 – Meeting ID: 857 9637 7450, Passcode: 182580) e in presenza sarà riprodotto nell’Aula 2Q del Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Ambientale e Meccanica (DICAM) presso l’Università degli Studi di Trento, in Via Mesiano 77 (38123, Trento).

Vi lasciamo un abstract e la biografia di Fatima Pillosu in basso:

Abstract
ECMWF has always been at the forefront of numerical weather prediction
(NWP) model development, often ranking as one of the world’s leading
centres for weather prediction. ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System
(IFS) covers the global domain, different time horizons (e.g.,
medium-range, sub-seasonal and seasonal), and consists of several
components (e.g., the atmospheric general circulation model, the ocean
wave model, the land-surface model, and the perturbation models for data
assimilation and generation of forecast ensembles). Any NWP model
divides the Earth’s surface into grid boxes and predicts one value
(e.g., for rainfall or temperature) per grid box. The sizes of such
grid-boxes vary depending on the model, from 1 to 5 km for regional
high-resolution models to 10 to 50 km for global lower-resolution
models. At ECMWF, great efforts are made to consistently increase the
resolution of their NWP models to provide their users with better
forecasts for specific locations, especially for extreme events (e.g.,
wind gusts, convective storms, and flash floods). Currently, the global
ensemble forecasts (ENS) are provided at 18 km and are expected to go to
9 km next year. However, if weather varies markedly within a grid box or
the predictability of the atmosphere is low, forecasts for specific
sites will inevitably fail due to biases or representativeness errors in
the model. By post-processing the raw NWP forecasts, it is possible to
provide better predictions for specific locations. ecPoint has been one
of the first post-processing projects at ECMWF, mainly to anticipate
sub-grid variability and biases in rainfall forecasts. Currently,
ecPoint provides global point-scale rainfall forecasts up to day 10 to
ECMWF users worldwide. Furthermore, ongoing investigations are carried
out on how to use ecPoint products to predict one of the most
devastating natural hazards: flash floods. The seminar will provide an
overview of the ecPoint post-processing technique. It will also discuss
the research behind the definition of a global layer in the GloFAS
platform that will use ecPoint forecasts for the global prediction of
flash floods at medium ranges, which hopes to help mainly humanitarian
actions in developing countries.

Bio
Fatima Pillosu is a researcher at the European Centre for Medium-range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, Reading, UK) and a PhD student at the
University of Reading (Reading, UK). After obtaining a bachelor’s
degree in civil engineering at the University of Cagliari, she
specialised in hydrology through an MSc in Hydraulic Engineering at the
University of Cagliari with a thesis that analysed the change in
frequency of extreme rainfall events and flash floods in Sardinia. This
latter work encouraged her to gain experience in meteorological science,
which led her to a 1-year internship at ECMWF in 2016. The project
focused on developing an innovative post-processing technique (called
ecPoint) to determine the degree of sub-grid variability and biases in
short- to medium-range rainfall forecasts. In 2019, this research
project became operational at ECMWF, providing global point-scale
rainfall forecasts to ECMWF users worldwide. In 2017, she also started a
PhD at the University of Reading to investigate the utility of such new
post-processed rainfall forecasts for hydrological predictions, focusing
mainly on flash flood forecasting.

This series of seminars is primarily targeted to Students attending our
double-degree programme of MSc in Environmental Meteorology [1].
However all those who are interested are more than welcome to join!
seminari corsi meteorologia
Environmental Meteorology Seminars: Alberto Troccoli

Continua il ciclo di seminari “Environmental Meteorology Seminars” con il contributo di Alberto Troccoli (World Energy and Meteorology Council) intitolato “Want to make a practical impact on society using your meteorological knowledge?”

Il seminario si terrà giovedì 6 ottobre alle 14:30 ora locale, in presenza al Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Ambientale e Meccanica dell’Università di Trento, Via Mesiano 77 38123 Trento, aula 2Q, e contemporaneamente online al seguente indirizzo: https://unitn.zoom.us/j/88007769188 (Meeting ID: 880 0776 9188, Passcode: 000848)

Abstract
Opportunities for applying your meteorology knowledge abound these days,
and are likely going to increase, so your MSc choice is a very good one.
However, especially considering the urgency of the climate problem,
where are your skills better spent? But more importantly what are you
interested in. In this presentation I’ll discuss various options for a
highly satisfying career as a meteorologist (so in either weather or
climate, or both) but with emphasis on pursuing a path on practical
applications/service provision. One of the appealing aspects of such a
path is that you can experience first hand how ‘meteorology’ can
make a difference in real life situations. In doing so I’ll draw
parallels from my own path, which was initially focused on more
fundamental science but then shifted to a main focus on
applications/service provision, including with a strong interaction with
users of meteorology.

Bio: Prof. Alberto Troccoli is the co-founder and Managing Director of the
World Energy and Meteorology Council (WEMC) and a visiting professor at
the University of East Anglia (UK). He has over 25 years of experience
in the fields of meteorology and climate, and in the last 10+ years has
been exploring their applications in the energy, and other, sectors. His
career includes time at several leading institutions such as NASA, ECMWF
(UK), the University of Reading (UK) and CSIRO (Australia). He is the
main author of the UN-led Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
Energy Sector implementation plan and the leader of the C3S Energy
operational service. In addition, he has published extensively and is
also the chief editor and an author of four books. Recently, he has led
the development of the Teal tool (tealtool.earth), a user-friendly free
interactive visualisation tool which allows global historical climate
and carbon
emissions data (and soon climate projections too) to be easily
visualised, understandable and accessible. Its design is distinctive and
modern incorporating the teal colour that gives the tool its name. It is
conceived to both raise awareness about our changing climate and to be
used to assist with decision making by the industry and policy makers.
Alberto holds a PhD in Physical Oceanography from the University of
Edinburgh (UK).
seminari corsi meteorologia
Environmental Meteorology Seminar: Anna Napoli

Per la serie Environmental Meteorology Seminar segnaliamo il seminario di Anna Napoli (University of Trento, Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering) dal titolo “Altitudinal dependence of meteoclimatic conditions in the Great Alpine Region“, organizzato dall’Università di Trento per giovedì 29 settembre 2022, alle ore 14:30.

Il seminario si terrà in presenza nella Lecture Room 2Q – DICAM, in Via Mesiano 77, a Trento. Sarà comunque possibile seguire l’evento online via zoom al seguente link:

https://unitn.zoom.us/j/84129935464
Meeting ID: 841 2993 5464,
Passcode: 932289

seminari corsi meteorologia
Environmental Meteorology Seminar: Luca Di Liberto

Per la serie Environmental Meteorology Seminar segnaliamo il seminario di L. Di Liberto (CNR-ISAC) dal titolo “ALICE-net, the Italian Automated LIdar-CEilometer network: current state and challenges”, organizzato dall’Università di Trento per giovedì 22 settembre 2022, alle ore 14:30.

Il seminario si terrà in presenza nella Lecture Room 2Q – DICAM, in Via Mesiano 77, a Trento. Sarà comunque possibile seguire l’evento online via zoom al seguente link:

https://unitn.zoom.us/j/81369394924
Meeting ID: 836 3968 5283
Passcode: 249478

seminari corsi meteorologia
Environmental Meteorology Seminar: Giorgia Fosser

Per la serie Environmental Meteorology Seminar segnaliamo il seminario di Giorgia Fosser (IUSS) dal titolo “Climate model jungle: how to choose the “right” one to study climate change”, organizzato dall’Università di Trento per giovedì 16 giugno, ore 14:30.

Il seminario si terrà in presenza nella Lecture Room 1P – DICAM, in Via Mesiano 77, a Trento. Sarà comunque possibile seguire l’evento online via zoom al seguente link:

https://unitn.zoom.us/j/81369394924
Meeting ID: 813 6939 4924
Passcode: 997153